We aggregate predictions from multiple sources and then curate the results.

Hamas Attacks! We Predict What Will Happen Next.

Delve into the complex world of geopolitics with our comprehensive analysis of the unexpected Hamas assault on Israeli soil on the morning of October 7th, 2023.
This particular confrontation between Israel and Hamas is unparalleled in its intensity and potential ramifications, signaling a pivotal moment in their longstanding conflict. Drawing from a rich tapestry of historical events and leveraging prediction markets, our insights suggest a prolonged conflict, with a mere 10% likelihood of resolution by November.
A pivotal factor in this unfolding drama is Iran's speculated involvement. If substantiated, this could dramatically alter the regional dynamics, hinting at a larger, more intricate geopolitical chess game. The US's strategic decision to deploy a significant naval presence in the region further emphasizes the global stakes at play.
Economically, the reverberations of this conflict might be felt at gas stations worldwide. With the Middle East's geopolitical instability, we predict a 55% chance that oil prices could soar to $100 a barrel in 2023. Moreover, the diplomatic dance between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the coming months will be crucial. Their potential alliance or lack thereof could redefine Middle Eastern geopolitics for generations.

Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed before the end of 2024?

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may face a Congressional subpoena by 2024 following a heated hearing on crypto regulation. Accusations include overreach and ignoring Congress. The episode explores an alleged anti-crypto campaign, "Operation Choke Point 2.0", and potential links between Gensler and FTX's collapse. Stricter crypto regulations, like bans on self-hosted wallets, are discussed. The episode anticipates Gensler's subpoena amidst growing regulatory conflicts. 

Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?

This episode explores the potential of military conflict between Russia and China over essential natural resources that Russia possesses and China lacks. In particular it examines China's worsening water shortage, which is most acute in its northern regions. Predictions are provided that offer possible timelines for when China might occupy a region of Russian territory to gain access to Lake Baikal and how likely this is to happen by 2045. 
 

Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?

In this episode we predict the likelihood that a spot Ethereum ETF will be approved by the SEC in 2023. We analyze the probability of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2023 by gathering predictions from platforms like Metaculus, Manifold, and Polymarket as well as AI systems like ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude. Our aggregated average prediction will be revealed at the end.

When will a US Retail Central Bank Digital Currency Go Live?

This episode explores if and when a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could launch for public use in the US before January 2031, providing background on how CBDCs differ from cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. It analyzes the potential benefits of faster payments but also highlights the risks around privacy violations, government overreach, and financial control. Predictions are gathered from various sources to calculate an aggregated forecast probability.

Will the SEC win its case against Coinbase?

Foresight Bureau explores the chances that the SEC's lawsuit against Coinbase will be successful. If the SEC wins it could shape the future of crypto regulation. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong argues the SEC is abusing its power to intimidate crypto firms like an "Operation Choke Point" redux. If the SEC wins, it may spur a regulatory crackdown on crypto exchanges, forcing them to delist tokens and implement strict investor safeguards. 

When will the SEC Approve a Bitcoin ETF?

Foresight Bureau explores the chances of the SEC approving a Bitcoin spot ETF before January 2025. We analyze predictions from experts, platforms like Polymarket and Metaculus, and AI assistants like ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude. By aggregating multiple forecasts, we aim to determine the most likely outcome to help viewers make informed decisions. 

Welcome to Foresight Bureau

We provide weekly prediction roundups from experts, AI, and prediction markets to help viewers make better decisions. Learn about forecasting, future trends, and more without the academic jargon. We believe prediction data should be accessible, mainstream, and entertaining. By aggregating forecasts, we aim to challenge assumptions, avoid biases, and evaluate information objectively.